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Título del libro: Evaluating The Performance Of Flo2d For Simulating Past Lahar Events At The Most Active Mexican Volcanoes: Popocatépetl And Volcán De Colima

Autores UNAM:
ANA MARIA LIZETH CABALLERO GARCIA; LUCIA CAPRA PEDOL; ROBERTO VAZQUEZ MEZA;
Autores externos:

Idioma:
Inglés
Año de publicación:
2016
Palabras clave:

Volcanoes; Channel geometry; Fitness functions; Hazard evaluation; Input parameter; Model performance; Model response; Textural characteristic; Three parameters; Uncertainty analysis


Resumen:

Two lahar episodes that occurred at Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes (México) are modeled using the FLO2D code, with the scope to define the parameters that control flow simulation and their reliability. The Lahar Patrio at Volcán de Colima was used to evaluate the model performance related to the influence of input hydrograph shape and Manning-n value in the absence of real data. The Popocatépetl 2001 lahar was used to evaluate the model response to lahars with different rheologic behaviors. Input parameters for lahar modeling like hydrograph, Manning-n values, and rheologic coefficients were derived from geophone data, channel geometry, and textural characteristics of the deposits. To validate the Lahar Patrio simulation, three parameters were used: The percent length ratio, the fitness function, and flow depths. This approach shows that a simplified hydrograph can be a good approximation for lahar simulation. On the contrary, Manning-n coefficient has a stronger influence on simulation results. The greatest uncertainty in lahar modeling with FLO2D is the selection of rheologic coefficients since very little changes in their magnitude can affect the simulation results. When a proper assessment of these input parameter uncertainties are performed, results obtained with FLO2D can be very useful for lahar hazard evaluation. © 2017 by the American Geophysical Union.


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